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Weather Analysis 12-3-12

December 3, 2012, 4:07 PM by Scot Mundt

THIS IS A COPY OF AN EMAIL I SEND OUT TO JAY, BRIAN, AND BEN.  JUST SOME THOUGHTS ON WHAT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DOING.  IT MAY OR MAY NOT REFLECT THE FINAL FORECAST.  BE SURE TO VISIT OUR WEATHER PAGE FOR UPDATES. –SCOT MUNDT


We’re finally seeing something different this week with ‘chances’ for snow Friday through Sunday with much colder air on the way.

Wednesday will be a warm day with highs in the 50s, and then the downward spiral starts.  It should be cold enough for snow on Friday.  It’s an interesting set-up, as it looks like it could be a frontogenesis type snow.  (I even have a message out to Chris Karstens on what he thinks).  As Schumacher mentioned in his experience with frontogenesis, “it’s not where the QPF lies, but where the frontogenesis lines up.  Use the heaviest QPF over the dominant frontogenesis for snow amounts.”  So we’ll have to watch this as the days go by.  Right now, it’s showing up on the GFS on Friday and the EURO on Saturday.  So I’ll blanket a 20-30 pop Friday-Saturday.  Sunday’s light snow should be morning only in eastern KELOLAND, followed by decreasing clouds.

A quick look at the QPF numbers from the 12z GFS for Friday:
Sioux Falls: .14”
Aberdeen: .15”
Pierre:  .25”
Rapid City: .18”
Pipestone: .23”
Marshall: .17”
Mitchell: .32”
Madison: .25”
Huron:  .22”
Brookings: .20”
Chamberlain: .37”
Winner: .43”
The highest amounts are .37” Chamberlain and .43” Winner.  We’ll see how these numbers change over the next couple of days AND watch where the frontogenesis sets up.  All in all, I wouldn’t be surprised for some areas to get 3-4” on Friday?  This is highly dependant on where frontogenesis sets up.

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