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Weather Analysis 11-19-12

November 19, 2012, 3:47 PM by Scot Mundt

THIS IS A COPY OF AN EMAIL I SEND OUT TO JAY, BRIAN, AND BEN.  JUST SOME THOUGHTS ON WHAT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DOING.  IT MAY OR MAY NOT REFLECT THE FINAL FORECAST.  BE SURE TO VISIT OUR WEATHER PAGE FOR UPDATES. –SCOT MUNDT

Mild temps for the next couple of days, cooler on Thanksgiving (but still above average.  Both EURO and GFS are bringing a light wintry mix in northern SD for Thanksgiving, added a 30 pop in the north.  Average QPF: ABR .12”, Watertown .05”, and Mobridge .10” so if any of this falls as snow, it will stay very light.  Winds will also be increasing on Thanksgiving.  Highs will be 12-18 degrees cooler on Thursday, but still above average.

As cooler air moves in Thursday night, Friday will be a cold day with highs only in the 30s in the east, 40s central, to near 50 in the west.  This will happen with destructive sunshine during the day in the east.  Saturday will be warmer, but another dry cold front will bring temps down on Sunday.

A developing storm system will have to be watched for next week.  We can get some hints of that on Monday in western SD (have a 30 pop for snow in the west on Monday).  This system will eventually move in the central plains with GFS and EURO bringing snow to KELOLAND Tuesday and Wednesday.  I’ll be watching the QPF amounts as the days go on…

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