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Weather Analysis 11-7-12

November 7, 2012, 3:41 PM by Scot Mundt

THIS IS A COPY OF AN EMAIL I SEND OUT TO JAY, BRIAN, AND BEN.  JUST SOME THOUGHTS ON WHAT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DOING.  IT MAY OR MAY NOT REFLECT THE FINAL FORECAST.  BE SURE TO VISIT OUR WEATHER PAGE FOR UPDATES. –SCOT MUNDT

 

Back door front moves through for tomorrow, giving many northeast winds and cooler temps.  Dry skies will remain through Friday, and then the fun starts.

GFS and GEM still barrel things through for Saturday night and Sunday morning with a light wintry mix, but the CAN and now the NAM are giving south central and southeast SD a good chance for snow.  In the meantime, there seems to be good frontogenesis on the GFS in western SD starting by 18z Sat and it really ramps up in south central SD 0z Sat.  See both images below…

 

QPF numbers are still rather anemic on the GFS and EURO.  The highest on the EURO is for Chamberlain and Winner with amounts near a third, GFS for those areas is only at a couple hundredths. 

The CAN and NAM paint a different picture.  Both are trying to bring post frontal snow Saturday night/Sunday morning in south central and eventually southeast SD.  See images from Penn-State E-wall below.  I have added a 20 pop for snow in FSD Sunday morning.  Oh, and much colder Sunday!  This will be a good test for the models.  EURO/GFS vs CAN/NAM, granted the NAM is coming from the “off” hour (18z).

CAN…

 

NAM…

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