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Weather Analysis 11-6-12

November 6, 2012, 4:09 PM by Scot Mundt

THIS IS A COPY OF AN EMAIL I SEND OUT TO JAY, BRIAN, AND BEN.  JUST SOME THOUGHTS ON WHAT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DOING.  IT MAY OR MAY NOT REFLECT THE FINAL FORECAST.  BE SURE TO VISIT OUR WEATHER PAGE FOR UPDATES. –SCOT MUNDT

 

With dry and warm work week, all eyes will be on the change coming this weekend.

I think the trend is a little slower on the EURO and GEM than the GFS.  GFS barrels things through Saturday night into Sunday with very little QPF.  EURO at least tries to drop light rain and light snow in FSD Saturday night, while GEM is showing the heaviest precip.  It will be interesting to see how things develop as the wave moves into the Pacific Northwest over the next 36 hours.  It will also help us with what model might be handling things better with these types of set-ups this year.

I attached the model data from Penn-State’s E-WALL below.

GFS for Sunday 6z, precip is in IA and MN, with bulk of snow north of SD.  -10 isotherm cutting SD in half.

 

Here’s the EURO for 12z Sunday.  While this shows 850 humidity, and it looks moist in SE KELOLAND, the actual QPF amounts are light.  Sioux Falls around .2”, Spencer IA is at .03”, Worthington .04”, Yankton .13”, Mitchell .25”, Brookings .19”, and Marshall .16”.  This will be rain switching to snow.  Again -10 isotherm cutting SD in half.

 

Finally, the CAN.  Holy cats!  If this holds true, look out but I’m not ready to buy it…just yet.  Oh, and -10 isotherm is cutting SD in half.

 

 

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