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Weather Analysis 11-5-12

November 5, 2012, 3:40 PM by Scot Mundt

THIS IS A COPY OF AN EMAIL I SEND OUT TO JAY, BRIAN, AND BEN.  JUST SOME THOUGHTS ON WHAT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DOING.  IT MAY OR MAY NOT REFLECT THE FINAL FORECAST.  BE SURE TO VISIT OUR WEATHER PAGE FOR UPDATES. –SCOT MUNDT

 


Light rain tonight in NE SD, isolated sprinkles in the SE.  Clouds will decrease late tonight in the east, with skies eventually becoming mostly clear during the morning.  Clouds will increase throughout the day tomorrow in eastern SD, while mostly sunny skies hold in the central and west.  Highs will hit the 50s for many locations, near 60 in Rapid City.

The dry skies will continue through the week with above average highs.  The weekend will still bring a chance for rain and snow with the digging trough in the west and southwest U.S.  Right now, I’d day the west has the best chance for snow with a slight chance for rain in the east.  Temperatures will be drastically cooler in the west with highs in the 30s in Rapid City on Saturday (and windy) while I upped the temp to 61 for FSD.  The temp will drop about 20-30 degrees in the east Saturday to Sunday.  Not too thrilled about the snow chances in eastern KELOLAND, but I wouldn’t be surprised for a rain to snow changeover in central and north central SD.  The bulk of the snow will remain to our north in ND.  EURO and CAN are on board with this system, it’s a matter of placement with the low.  While it may not bring snow to FSD, at least it’s another sign of a pattern change.

Last night’s 0z run of the GFS, valid 18z Saturday.  Low is in west central MN, bulk of precip in ND.  Not much QPF in SD.

 

This morning’s run for Saturday 18z.  Low is in east central SD.  Better chance for snow in western SD, slight chance for rain in the east.

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