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Weather Analysis 10/24/12

October 24, 2012, 3:58 PM by Scot Mundt

THIS IS A COPY OF AN EMAIL I SEND OUT TO JAY, BRIAN, AND BEN.  JUST SOME QUICK THOUGHTS ON WHAT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DOING.  IT MAY OR MAY NOT REFLECT THE FINAL FORECAST.  BE SURE TO VISIT OUR WEATHER PAGE FOR UPDATES. –SCOT MUNDT


Rain and snow has been slow to move east, and I don’t see much movement until the overnight hours.  Trof will continue to dig and precip will be enhanced by wave moving through Kansas.  Talked to Jay about leaving only morning snow in the forecast for tomorrow, he agrees as the rain will slowly mix with snow during the overnight.  Amounts should stay light, but some areas may have an inch or two of wet snow.  The raw QPF from the GFS suggests this in Brookings, Huron, Madison, and Marshall.  If you’re a fan of the 18z ETA, it spits out .66” in FSD.  On average, a quarter to a half inch of precip looks possible along and east of the James, though Aberdeen’s numbers are a little low.

 

 

After the snow leaves, clouds will decrease from west to east with high pressure working in.  Depending on clouds, I have teens for Friday morning in western, central, and the NE.  Temps will remain cool (40s) through the weekend.  Watch Saturday evening into Sunday morning.  A wave drops through the NW flow, might spark some showers…light snow suggested on GFS.  Same thing happens Monday evening.  For now, I kept those days dry as most of what falls will be late day/overnight.

On a side note, “Six weeks after a hard freeze, expect snow”.  That’s coming up, from our freeze from September.  The date is November 4, GFS is hinting at this.  If nothing else, it might be fun to watch.

 

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