Clouds haven’t filtered out and that’s caused temperatures to stand still. Regardless, it’s one of the warmest days of the week. Changes start this evening with the passage of a cold front. Tomorrow will be cooler, with many of our highs coming early in the day.
Light rains have been steady in western South Dakota but they should ramp up just a little bit overnight. The front moves east tomorrow with a stronger breeze but most of the rain will be behind the actual front.
The best chance for showers and maybe flurries is later tomorrow evening into Thursday, at least for those in the east. Rainfall amounts still look like they could be in the quarter-to-half inch range. The way things have been going lately, the shower bands will linger a while but we don’t expect any drought busters. The newest data coming into the Storm Center places more emphasis on early rains in the Black Hills during the day tomorrow.
Since most of the activity will come behind the front, the air will be colder. That means some of what falls could hang on as snow for a while longer. Most will be regular rain but you could see a few flakes of snow mixing in. The better chances for this are in the Black Hills and also far northern KELOLAND. More computer models also try to bring mixed-in flurries towards Sioux Falls. We don’t expect much in the way of accumulation.
Colder air follows this. We know from experience that Arctic air sometimes gets underdone. When calm and clear air sets back up Thursday night, temperatures could plummet. Some in northern South Dakota could fall into the teens. We anticipate a slight warm-up early next week but we don’t have much heat left in the long term forecast.