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Weather Analysis 10/23/12

October 23, 2012, 8:41 AM by Scot Mundt

THIS IS A COPY OF AN EMAIL I SEND OUT TO JAY, BRIAN, AND BEN.  JUST SOME QUICK THOUGHTS ON WHAT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DOING.  IT MAY OR MAY NOT REFLECT THE FINAL FORECAST.  BE SURE TO VISIT OUR WEATHER PAGE FOR UPDATES. –SCOT MUNDT

Cold front still on track for tomorrow with cool weather staying with us through the weekend.  Front will also bring rain and snow…watch the Hills for possible advisories.

Rain amounts range from near three quarters in NW IA to a quarter in Huron.  The precip totals are a combination of Wednesday and Thursday.  I’m still curious of our chances for snow.  The snow chances are well behind the main precip, but eastern KELOLAND may get some light snow wrapped in Thursday morning.  850mb is still below 0 by the afternoon while thickness values are still a little high.  Any snow that falls will not accumulate too much as the ground is warm and it’s a fast moving system.  Winds will probably increase for Thursday and I wouldn’t be surprised for steady or falling temps.  QPF amounts are below.  The GFS did well last time with around two-thirds of an inch for FSD.

 

 

Both images are from the 0z GFS.  First is the thickness and precip, 540 line close to east and SE SD.

 

850 line below 0°

 

 

Cold air stays through the weekend.  Watch the morning lows, depending on where the high sets up and if skies clear I wouldn’t be surprised for widespread teens.  Seems the models always underestimate cold air.

Warmer weather will try to move through on Sunday.  If it were later in the season and had snow on the ground, could be a good scenario for warm advection snow.  You might want to add scattered showers on Sunday.  Warm on Monday, but it will be short lived with colder air arriving on Tuesday.

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