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Weather Analysis - 10/22/12

October 22, 2012, 8:11 AM by Scot Mundt

THIS IS A COPY OF AN EMAIL I SEND OUT TO JAY, BRIAN, AND BEN.  JUST SOME QUICK THOUGHTS ON WHAT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DOING.  IT MAY OR MAY NOT REFLECT THE FINAL FORECAST.  BE SURE TO VISIT OUR WEATHER PAGE FOR UPDATES. –SCOT MUNDT

 

With the schedule change, I’m working off the 0z models.

Looks more interesting this week, warmer wx tomorrow followed by cold air for the end of the week and into at least the first half of the weekend. Could end up being our coldest air so far this season.

Clouds will slowly erode tonight into tomorrow, but as winds shift to the south and sun starts to shine, wouldn’t be surprised for widespread 70s tomorrow.  Models warm the SE to the middle 70s, so you might want to bump up highs for Tuesday.

Cold front moves through on Wednesday, this will bring scattered showers to KELOLAND.  As a wave moves along the front to our south, rain chance will last into Thursday.  As this is mostly post frontal on Thursday, watch for the potential for snow to mix in.  850 values are low enough, but thickness still a little high.  So watch the newer runs as they come out.  If I remember, Sioux Falls gets measurable snow 41% of the time in October.  (snow this month also lines up with 1976 and 2006, both developing El Nino years)   I will mention the 6z run of the GFS has .21” for FSD with the 850 between -4 and -3° and thickness values just below 540, it occurs during the afternoon.

Behind the rain/snow, much colder air pours in.  Saturday morning could bring a round of teens for much of eastern KELOLAND, depends where the high sets up.  Afternoon highs will be cold with numbers mainly in the 40s Thursday through at least Saturday.  I have the coldest highs and lows so far this month in chart below.

 

 

0z GFS for Thursday is below...

 

6z GFS for Thursday is below...

 

 

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