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Weather Analysis 10-16-12

October 16, 2012, 3:50 PM by Scot Mundt

THIS IS A COPY OF AN EMAIL I SEND OUT TO JAY, BRIAN, AND BEN.  JUST SOME QUICK THOUGHTS ON WHAT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DOING.  IT MAY OR MAY NOT REFLECT THE FINAL FORECAST.  BE SURE TO VISIT OUR WEATHER PAGE FOR UPDATES. –SCOT MUNDT

We all know wind is on the way.  Jay showed some BUFKIT info with winds above the surface screaming at 72 mph on Wednesday.  We’ll see how much of that mixes down, but the winds do look coupled!  Numerous wind warnings and advisories Wednesday and Thursday.  This is still looking like the storm Brian mentioned from 2010, that will be Wednesday’s weather story.

In the meantime, light showers possible tonight.  I upped the pop in north central to 40% with 20% for everyone else.  Winds get going tomorrow with mostly cloudy skies and a slight chance for showers in the NE (ABR at 30%).  Temps will be about 15-20 degrees cooler (50s).

Thursday is looking interesting with better chances for rain.  I checked the precip we had with the wind storm in 2010 and found some good stuff.  Sioux Falls had .9” (.91” total for October that year), Aberdeen had .58” (.3” snow), Sisseton had 1.51” (.1” snow), and Watertown had 1.11” (.1” snow).  So, with models spitting out a third to over three-quarters of an inch in eastern KELOLAND…it can happen.  I went with 50% in FSD and 70% in ABR.  We’ll have to watch for the snow possibilities in northeast KELOLAND too.  850s are near 0° at times but thicknesses are high.  Thursday’s QPF is below…

 

EXTENDED…not too worried about much beyond seven days, let’s get rid of the “hurricane” first, then I’ll have more faith in the models.

 

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