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Weather Analysis 10-15-12

October 15, 2012, 3:46 PM by Scot Mundt

THIS IS A COPY OF AN EMAIL I SEND OUT TO JAY, BRIAN, AND BEN.  JUST SOME QUICK THOUGHTS ON WHAT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DOING.  IT MAY OR MAY NOT REFLECT THE FINAL FORECAST.  BE SURE TO VISIT OUR WEATHER PAGE FOR UPDATES. –SCOT MUNDT

Another dry and warm day tomorrow with highs mainly in the 70s.  Isolated showers possible late in the day in western South Dakota will move east into central and eastern KELOLAND overnight.  Expect light amounts, if any Tuesday night.  (I’ll look more into the amounts tomorrow) 

The big story will be the wind for Wednesday and Thursday.  Deepening low in northern Minnesota will allow for STRONG northwest winds.  Brian mentioned this system is looking a lot like the wind machine we had in late October 2010 (the record low pressure day in MN).  That system produced max wind speeds in the upper 50s and low 60s throughout eastern KELOLAND.  Pierre had a peak gust at 67 mph!  That system also produced snow, with 2-3” from Webster to Sisseton!  We’ll see if that happens this year.  I checked the 850mb winds and listed them below.

 


 

Temps will remain near average through Sunday, but cooler air moves in on Monday.

EXTENDED…The advertised ridge from the models last week is now gone on the EURO and GFS, the CAN is still fighting to bring the warm air back.  There may be a day or two of warm weather, but we’re now looking at temps mainly below average.  Sioux Falls is below average by 4° for the month so far.  I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a little snow sometime by the end of October.  It happened in the years I modeled my prediction from.

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