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Forecast Analysis

October 10, 2012, 4:08 PM by Scot Mundt

Winds will shift to the north tonight to help usher in cooler air for tomorrow.  The temperature difference could range from 10-20+ degrees (Rapid is 70° as of 3:00 and they’re forecast at 48° for tomorrow).  North winds will continue tomorrow at 10-20 mph with partly cloudy skies, thicker clouds in the west.

 

Winds change to the south and increase throughout the day ahead of the approaching system for Saturday.  With the increasing south winds on Friday, I upped the highs a couple of degrees in some areas.  From 60° in FSD to 70° in RAP.

 

As the low moves through on Saturday, the winds will decouple.  So I’m not too worried on strong winds Saturday, but they’ll be back on Sunday.  Temps do not show a major drop off until Wednesday’s cold front.  Wednesday will have strong north winds with temps retreating to the fifties under partly cloudy skies. 

 

Nothing stands out beyond the seven day, as northwest flow develops.  Another push of cold arrives NEXT weekend.

 

Can’t put too much stock into anything beyond the 21st.  Yesterday’s run tried to develop a Hudson Bay Low around the 23-24th, giving us a shot of cold air and possible light wintry mix.  Now it’s trying to build a huge ridge in the western United States.  The ridge is NOW forecast to move over us by the 24th.  EURO only goes out to the 19th, but it shows a trof off the Pacific Northwest.  Anything goes!

 

Here’s a look at the QPF for the weekend.  Not as much on the EURO from yesterday, but still over an inch in Spencer and Orange City.  GFS has remained persistent with higher end totals in IA and MN.  Sioux Falls average over the past three days: Today: .55”, Tues: .47”, Mon: .70”.

 

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