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Accumulating snow possible Monday night - Tuesday. Storm Center Update.

 

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Weather Analysis 2-19-13

February 19, 2013, 4:25 PM by Scot Mundt

THIS IS A COPY OF AN EMAIL I SEND OUT TO JAY, BRIAN, AND BEN.  JUST SOME THOUGHTS ON WHAT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DOING.  IT MAY OR MAY NOT REFLECT THE FINAL FORECAST.  BE SURE TO VISIT OUR WEATHER PAGE FOR UPDATES. –SCOT MUNDT


QPF numbers and storm system have both moved south.  Many locations are around a quarter to a half inch.  QPF amounts are below.

With this in mind, here’s a look at what Jay and I put together for snow amounts…

Some things to consider:
• The system has slowed a little, while snow will start in central SD Wednesday evening/night, it might not be in the southeast until Thursday afternoon.
• Dry east wind, this will help delay the onset in the east AND have an effect on the amounts (less).
• Any storms that fire to the south will also give us less moisture (snow).
• Model trend to the south will push everything south.  Though I’m not much a believer in the 18z or 6z runs, the 18z GFS qpf looks like the 12z (only a little delayed)

Sunday and Monday’s snow???  Let’s keep the chance around but not get too caught up in it until we see what happens with this.

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