Weather Analysis 2-15-13

THIS IS A COPY OF AN EMAIL I SEND OUT TO JAY, BRIAN, AND BEN.  JUST SOME THOUGHTS ON WHAT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DOING.  IT MAY OR MAY NOT REFLECT THE FINAL FORECAST.  BE SURE TO VISIT OUR WEATHER PAGE FOR UPDATES. –SCOT MUNDT

Tail end of trough moves through central South Dakota tonight and tomorrow, so the 20-30 pop is still warranted in that area.  While QPF is low during that time, minor accumulations can not be ruled out.  Today was a prime example of that.

The closer we get to Sunday, the lower the models are suggesting for afternoon highs.  EURO is now at 37° for Sioux Falls.  Still think middle 30s in the east is okay, with 40s in central and west.

Colder air moves in early next week with the coldest day being Tuesday.  Highs in northeast KELOLAND will stay in the single digits, Sioux Falls will be in the lower teens.  The colder than average temperatures will stick around for next week.

All eyes will be on the possible storm starting Wednesday in western South Dakota and leaving Friday in the east.  I’ll post the data via Penn State for the EURO and GFS below for Thursday and Friday.  Models expect the Gulf to be open, so still showing moisture amounts over an inch in south central and southeast KELOLAND.  Winds will also be up; looks like it could be a real mess!

QPF amounts…

GFS first… (Thursday & Friday)

EURO… (Thursday & Friday)