THIS IS A COPY OF AN EMAIL I SEND OUT TO JAY, BRIAN, AND BEN. JUST SOME THOUGHTS ON WHAT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DOING. IT MAY OR MAY NOT REFLECT THE FINAL FORECAST. BE SURE TO VISIT OUR WEATHER PAGE FOR UPDATES. –SCOT MUNDT
QPF numbers are below.
Amounts are high in northwest Iowa with Spencer and Orange City at three-quarters of an inch or more. Granted some of this will fall as rain, but I think mentioning isolated six inch amounts in these areas are well warranted.
As far as timing goes, snow will start in western SD tonight and move into central and south central South Dakota by sunrise. I don’t think the snow during the overnight and early tomorrow morning will be heavy, but these areas will have an inch or two of accumulation by daybreak. By Midday, I expect the snow to be switching to or mixing with rain as it makes it way close to I-90. I also think the rain will switch back to snow for that area after 2 or 3:00. It shouldn’t be a long period of rain; maybe an hour or two before switching back to all snow. Expect the same thing in NW Iowa as it travels there during the afternoon, but with more moisture available (higher QPF) is the reason for the isolated 6” amounts. It’s a fast moving system, so it should be clear of Iowa and Minnesota by Wednesday morning. I think most of the snow will be south of Highway 14. Current thinking for Sioux Falls is around 3”.
Once this moves through, we should be quiet until the middle of the month???