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Weather Analysis 10-12-12

October 12, 2012, 2:21 PM by Scot Mundt

THIS IS A COPY OF AN EMAIL I SEND OUT TO JAY, BRIAN, AND BEN.  JUST SOME QUICK THOUGHTS ON WHAT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DOING.  IT MAY OR MAY NOT REFLECT THE FINAL FORECAST.  BE SURE TO VISIT OUR WEATHER PAGE FOR UPDATES. –SCOT MUNDT

Clouds will increase tonight with developing rain.  The best chance remains in NW IA.  We’ll see if we can get anything gong in south central to southeast South Dakota tonight.  Any thing that develops will move northeast.  Might be able to leave the 20 pop out of Rapid, just keep an eye on the radar trends.  Otherwise, the 20 pop in PIR and ABR should suffice. 

Amounts have been trimmed back on the GFS, the precip table is below.  Right now, I’d say a trace to a quarter from Lake Andes, Mitchell, Brookings, and Marshall east.  Higher amounts will be in Iowa.  I still wouldn’t be surprised with partly cloudy skies during the afternoon with only a slight chance for an afternoon shower (20%).

 

Temps cool a couple of degrees behind the system, but it won’t be a dramatic cool down until weak cold front on Wednesday.  This front will most likely move through dry.  The GFS puts us in NW flow with a clipper moving through next Friday.

EXTENDED…The clipper will cool us for a day or two, but the ridge mentioned yesterday is still showing up on the GFS, EURO, and CAN.  Until the 25th on the GFS.

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