Look for a quiet weather day across KELOLAND with mild temperatures covering much of the region.
However, big changes are on the way for Friday and again early next week as heavy rain and some snow is likely again in western South Dakota.
On Wednesday, high temperatures will range from the upper 70s in the southeast to the lower 60s in Rapid City. Breezy south winds are also expected across much of the southeast including Sioux Falls.
The weather forecast will start mild on Thursday, but a developing storm system across Colorado will impact parts of the area by Thursday night. Chances of thunderstorms will ramp up across southwest and south central South Dakota by evening, with a risk of severe weather from Rapid City to Pierre and points south Thursday night.
After this line of thunderstorms moves through, areas of rain will be likely in western South Dakota on Friday. This is where we expect the heaviest amounts will fall, with perhaps well over an inch in the northern Black Hills into northwestern South Dakota. Sioux Falls and Aberdeen will also have chances of rain on Friday, but the activity is expected to remain more scattered. Strong winds will also accompany this low pressure center as it quickly pulls away into North Dakota Friday afternoon. This will set the stage for a cooler weekend with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s, which is more typical for this time of year.
Chances of rain will increase again by Sunday in western South Dakota, with rain over spreading much of the region by Monday. We are concerned about chances of snow also in the Rapid City and Black Hills region by Monday.
The European model suggests several inches of snow again in the northern Black Hills. Temperatures will likely be much cooler Monday and Tuesday as a result of the clouds and precipitation.