An extreme contrast in weather will be found across KELOLAND today as a strong early fall system tracks through the plains. Starting this morning in western South Dakota, rain is changing to snow throughout the Black Hills region where blizzard warnings and winter storm warnings are in effect. The blizzard warning does include Rapid City, as winds will gust from the north up to 70 miles per hour with heavy snow. We still believe the heaviest snowfall accumulation will occur in the northern Black Hills through the next 24 to 36 hours. Amount over 2 feet are not out of the question.
The southeast will be experiencing a much different scenario. New this morning, the Storm Prediction Center has once again shifted the severe weather risk farther west as the latest data shifts the storm track slightly farther northwest. The Sioux Falls area is near the moderate risk of severe weather starting mid afternoon through early this evening. The highest risk of severe weather also includes all of northwestern IA, extreme southeast South Dakota, and extreme southern Minnesota.
We expect a line of supercell thunderstorms to develop along the east of the surface low track during this time frame. Storms will be quickly moving north-northeast once they develop. Severe weather threats include including damaging winds, hail, and the threat of tornadoes. The highest potential for tornadoes would be along and southeast of a Yankton to Worthington line after 3 p.m. today. Viewers in these areas need to pay close attention to the weather forecast and be prepared for quickly changing weather conditions.
Heavy rain is also a component to the storm system today and tomorrow in central and northeastern KELOLAND. It still appears that a rain snow mix will develop as far east as the Missouri River Valley through tomorrow morning
By Saturday morning, much cooler weather will filter in throughout the remainder of KELOLAND tomorrow. Areas of rain, chilly northwest winds, and clouds will continue through the day on Saturday. Leftover rain and snow showers will linger into Sunday morning.