There is a lot going on this week but not too many chances of rain. We had a very summer-like feel today with abundant sunshine. Strong south winds late in the day will draw in warmth. The winds are dry and we have critical fire danger for most of KELOLAND. Late tonight the cold front just starts moving into our northwest near Buffalo.
Most computer models are now pushing the rain a little bit more to the north. Some spots along the North Dakota border could actually get some healthy rain totals. Most will see the chance of only light totals.
As the front nears, winds will become very windy out of the south. Behind the front tomorrow, north winds will be 25-40 mph in parts of the Black Hills. These very strong winds will pump in much colder air. In just one day, high temperatures will fall about 30 degrees. The front will not make it through all the way to Sioux Falls tomorrow. That means the southeast will still be warm, with many areas back into the lower 80s.
The rain chance remains for most through early in the day Thursday. East River, the sun comes back out on Friday. That won't bring in warmth, though. Friday will likely be the coolest day all week, with many highs not reaching 50! Also on Friday, a disturbance moving through far SW South Dakota could bring a light wintry mix to higher elevations. This is not necessarily that early. Lead has had much bigger storms in early October, but right now this system seems more minor.
Next week could bring some slightly warmer temperatures back.