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10-11-12 Weather Analysis

October 11, 2012, 3:15 PM by Scot Mundt

THIS IS A COPY OF AN EMAIL I SEND OUT TO JAY, BRIAN, AND BEN.  JUST SOME QUICK THOUGHTS ON WHAT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DOING.  IT MAY OR MAY NOT REFLECT THE FINAL FORECAST.  BE SURE TO VISIT OUR WEATHER PAGE FOR UPDATES. –SCOT MUNDT


Skies will clear overnight with lows falling to the 20s in central and eastern SD.  30s will be found in western SD.

Tomorrow will be sunny and warmer with highs near 60 in the east to near 70 in the west.  Winds will increase from the south and average 20-30 mph, but higher in central SD.

I think the best shot for the rain will be Friday night into Saturday morning.  After that, I wouldn’t be surprised if skies become partly cloudy for the afternoon.  The Canadian cloud product is showing this!  Instability showers will be possible in the afternoon, so I kept the 20 pop in the NE, central, and west.  Temperatures will still be in the 60s, but I warmed FSD to 71°.  Winds will be strong from the north in central and western SD on Saturday (20-35 mph for RAP).

Best QPF is lining up from Yankton to Marshall and east.  On average, a quarter to a third of an inch can be expected with higher amounts in any storms that develop.  GFS and EURO area averaging near three-quarters of an inch for Spencer and Orange City.  QPF table is below.  Keep in mind any storms that fire to our south and southeast have a chance to become severe AND rob moisture from us!


Temps remain in the 60s for Sunday through Tuesday.  A cold front Tuesday night might spark a shower or two, but amounts will stay less than a tenth of an inch.  I have a 20 pop in RAP for Tuesday and a 20 pop in FSD and ABR for Wednesday.

EXTENDED…looks like a ridge will build after the cold front next week.  GFS has it lasting through Wednesday October 24.

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