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February 18, 2013 07:11 AM

Storm Center Update-Monday AM

Sioux Falls, SD

We have a week ahead full of winter weather, with cold winds and arctic air arriving today, and a snowstorm at the end of the week.  First, northwest winds will be strong today with a wind advisory in effect for much of KELOLAND.  A winter weather advisory has also been posted for the northeast corner for areas of snow and blowing snow, creating more hazardous travel.  Wind speeds today could gust over 40mph, so be especially aware of that if you have loose snow on the ground in your location.  The warmer weather from yesterday helped to crust the snow, but the far northeast is still very vulnerable to blowing snow.

Temperatures will be falling much of the day and wind chills by tonight will be very cold, down to -20 or lower in the east.  This will give us a very cold start on Tuesday morning with highs only in the single digits above zero in northeastern KELOLAND.  We'll see the arctic air remain in place through midweek, although temperatures should be a little warmer by Wednesday.

The main story later in the week is the potential for a widespread snow event across the plains.  Right now, we are still forecasting a broad area of snowfall to overspread KELOLAND, starting in the west late Wednesday afternoon and spreading East River through Thursday AM.  The snow will likely continue on Thursday and last into Friday AM into western MN.  Predicting snowfall will hinge on a few factors.  First, this storm should be cold enough in our area for all snow this time.  Any disruption in moisture supply due to t-storms to our south in the warm sector of the storm system could affect our snow forecast.  Don't forget about the very dry low levels...especially in MN.  This air will feed into KELOLAND as the low develops to our southwest.  This will sometimes lead to a delay of the snowfall, but those factors have yet to be determined.  Having said all of that, we still have good agreement that a large 4+" snow would accumulate across much of Nebraska, South Dakota, into Iowa and southern Minnesota.  I wouldn't be surprised if some places receive a foot, but that would be more favored in Nebraska at this time if we assume the surface low pressure track goes through Kansas.  Again, we have some time to nail down a few of these factors, so stay tuned.

Just in case that wasn't enough winter weather, we have another storm heading our way early next week.  Again, very early to call specifics, but another swath of snowfall looks likely in the central and northern plains.  It seems winter may be just beginning....

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