Now that the winter storm is inside KELOLAND, we're working on the wind directions; that feature will govern what time rain changes to snow. Blizzard Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings are still up, largely north of Highway 14. Don't expect this to be done by tonight. Snow will form as we get colder and much of the most active weather you might not be awake to see.
Depending on when you go to bed, the bulk of snow will probably not be over. The worst visibility will come once the winds turn north. This is the time when snow will be heaviest and the winds strongest. This is also the time when the snow line curls well back to the south.
The southern surge of warmer air made for initial freezing rain in Sioux Falls and the southeast, with a good dousing rain following. Sioux Falls is still in line for heavier rains than we've received in quite some time. This will cause travel issues by early tomorrow as some standing water will re-freeze when the winds turn from the north. Winds turn around and will come from the north later into tonight. Around morning commutes, we're expecting the lighter snows to return. We won't see too much snow, however, most likely less than two inches in Sioux Falls.
Aberdeen got the warmest push of southern air, but as the east-northeast winds starts wrapping in colder air, this will change from rain to snow by later in the afternoon, during the evening commute in the NE.
Tonight, the system will slightly move east, and cold north winds will change this over to snow. We're still expecting the heaviest snows in north-central and northeastern KELOLAND. The heaviest core looks to stay in the Sisseton Hills and Coteau des Prairies, with a foot of snow possible in localized areas by the time this is over early tomorrow afternoon.
Blizzard conditions are still likely to form in parts of the Blizzard Warning area, including the Missouri River Valley down to Pierre. From a rough Pierre to Aberdeen line, still expect heavier snows, upwards of seven inches but less than a foot. A few isolated spots could pick up slightly more accumulation. If the change-over time gets delayed, this will eat the snow totals.
The Black Hills will likely stay with snow and possibly a little frozen mix. Temperatures are still colder farther west. By the time this is done, 3-7" is possible in two bands. The first is over the Cheyenne River, and through the Hills. The second would likely form as the cold plunges back south later on. Again, freezing rain could eat into this total if the changing time is delayed at your home.
Despite early rains, we're still likely to see widespread travel issues tomorrow morning and schools impacted, especially north of Highway 14.