Our much-advertised cold front is about halfway through KELOLAND. Temperatures are already starting to cool in the far NW and snow isn’t too far from that same area. It’s an interesting forecast because there’s very little actual moisture but the dynamics around it are pretty strong. Short story: we’ve got a good chance of squeezing out what little moisture there is into snow.
Because that Arctic air isn’t impeded on its way here, it will continue to come in for ~36 hours. The moisture is a good ways behind the actual front and so we’re not worried about wintry mix.
That snow will start this evening in the NW corner and we’ll likely see flurries in the NE, as well. The air should be quite dry up in the northeast as a 1050 mb high pressure center is closest to this area. The best band of snow won’t likely cross into East River until after midnight. The most likely spots are in the far NW, areas like Perkins and Harding Counties. This moves from NW to SE and gets closer to Sioux Falls by tomorrow morning.
Every computer model is on the fence for Sioux Falls itself. They all show better moisture and snowfall potential just to the SW of town. It shouldn’t amount to all that much, most spots in the east will struggle to reach an inch. There could be a very thin band of snow that adds up to a little bit more, but that would only be a few miles wide. The moisture moves out by late tomorrow, leaving a bitterly cold night in its wake. We’ll easily have highs in the single digits in the east… if there is snow, you can knock a few additional degrees off of that.
Tuesday will be a touch warmer but still 10-15° below normal.
Warmth comes back to KELOLAND on Wednesday. A small system tracks south of I-90 on Thursday. Clouds are a good bet and we could also have some light rain in that area south of the interstate. We’ll also have to watch out for a thin band in the far eastern zones Saturday before another strong cold front follows next Sunday.