July 2006 Poll Results
KELOLAND TV/Argus Leader Poll
HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED
This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter turn-out by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a regional or gender grouping.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 386 (48%) Women 414 (52%)
Democrats 309 (39%) Republicans 387 (48%) Independents 104 (13%)
REGION
East River/South 240 interviews
East River/North 160 interviews
REGIONAL GROUPINGS
SIOUX FALLS METRO: Voters in Minnehaha and
EAST RIVER/SOUTH: Voters in Turner, Union, Clay, Yankton, Bon Homme, Hutchinson, McCook, Lake, Moody, Brookings, Miner, Hanson, Davison, Aurora, Brule, Charles Mix, Douglas, Sanborn, Beadle, Hand, Hyde, Jerauld, Buffalo, Campbell, Sully and Hughes Counties.
EAST RIVER/NORTH: Voters in Roberts, Grant, Deuel, Hamlin, Coddington, Clark, Day, Kingsbury,
WEST RIVER: Voters in Gregory, Tripp, Lyman, Jones, Stanley, Shannon, Mellette, Todd, Bennett, Jackson, Haakon, Corson, Dewey, Ziebach, Perkins, Harding, Butte, Meade, Lawrence, Pennington, Custer and Fall River Counties.
STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION
I am going to read you a list of several candidates for public office this year.
The first name is _____________. Do you recognize that name?
(IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ________?
RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE DON'T
FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL RECOGNIZE
Tim Johnson 57% 16% 24% 3%
John Thune 51% 28% 19% 2%
George W. Bush 41% 40% 19% -
GOVERNOR
Mike Rounds 59% 15% 25% 1%
Jack Billion 23% 9% 46% 22%
Stephanie Herseth 63% 20% 16% 1%
Bruce Whalen 10% 3% 36% 51%
QUESTION: If the 2006 election for Governor were held today, would you vote for Jack Billion, the Democrat, or Mike Rounds, the Republican?
ROUNDS BILLION UNDECIDED
STATE 56% 27% 17%
REGION ROUNDS BILLION UNDECIDED
East River/South 55% 26% 19%
East River/North 54% 28% 18%
SEX ROUNDS BILLION UNDECIDED
Men 62% 22% 16%
Women 50% 32% 18%
AGE ROUNDS BILLION UNDECIDED
<50 59% 25% 16%
50+ 53% 29% 18%
PARTY ROUNDS BILLION UNDECIDED
Democrats 32% 46% 22%
Republicans 75% 12% 13%
Independents 57% 29% 14%
QUESTION: If the 2006 election for
HERSETH WHALEN UNDECIDED
STATE 60% 26% 14%
REGION HERSETH WHALEN UNDECIDED
East River/South 64% 23% 13%
East River/North 65% 23% 12%
SEX HERSETH WHALEN UNDECIDED
Men 59% 28% 13%
Women 61% 24% 15%
AGE HERSETH WHALEN UNDECIDED
<50 58% 29% 13%
50+ 62% 23% 15%
PARTY HERSETH WHALEN UNDECIDED
Democrats 89% 4% 7%
Republicans 34% 46% 20%
Independents 71% 18% 11%
QUESTION: What issue is most important to you in deciding how to vote in the governor’s race? (NOT READ)
Abortion 19%
Education/School Issues 18%
Economic Development/Jobs 11%
Taxes/Government Spending 9%
Experience/Character 4%
Healthcare 3%
Moral Issues/Family Values 3%
Drought Relief/Water Policy 2%
Honesty/Open Government 2%
Party Affiliation 2%
Crime/Public Safety 1%
Other 6%
Not Sure 20%
QUESTION: Referred Law 6 on the November ballot is the petitioned referendum on state House Bill 1215. It would prohibit any person, at any time, from providing any medicine or other substance to a pregnant woman for the specific purpose of terminating her pregnancy. However, a person may provide a contraception substance to a woman without penalty prior to the time her pregnancy could be determined by conventional medical testing.
It would also prohibit any person, at any time, from using any instrument or procedure on a pregnant woman for the specific purpose of terminating her pregnancy, unless the person is a licensed physician performing a medical procedure to prevent the death of the pregnant woman.
If approved, this law will likely be challenged in court and may be declared to be in violation of the
If you were voting on this Referred Law today, would you vote:
- "YES", to allow the Act to become law
- or, "NO", to reject the Act?
STATE MEN WOMEN DEMS REPS INDS
“YES” 39% 39% 39% 23% 51% 43%
“NO” 47% 46% 48% 63% 34% 50%
UNDECIDED 14% 15% 13% 14% 15% 7%
(IF VOTING “NO” OR “UNDECIDED”) QUESTION: If the Bill allowed for an exception for cases of rape or incest, would you vote “YES” or “NO”?
(NET RESULTS) STATE MEN WOMEN DEMS REPS INDS
“YES” 59% 59% 59% 51% 64% 65%
“NO” 29% 32% 26% 36% 23% 28%
UNDECIDED 12% 9% 15% 13% 13% 7%
QUESTION: Will the position that candidates take on this referendum influence your voting decision in the race for:
YES NO DK
- Governor? 66% 26% 8%
- State Legislature? 67% 27% 6%
-
QUESTION: Constitutional Amendment C on the November ballot would amend the State Constitution to allow and recognize marriage only between a man and a woman. It would also prohibit the Legislature from allowing or recognizing civil unions, domestic partnerships or other quasi-marital relationships between two or more persons regardless of sex. If you were voting on this amendment today, would you vote:
- "YES", to change the Constitution,
-
STATE MEN WOMEN DEMS REPS INDS
“YES” 41% 46% 36% 22% 58% 39%
“NO” 49% 46% 52% 70% 30% 52%
UNDECIDED 10% 8% 12% 8% 12% 9%
QUESTION: Initiated Measure 2, to increase the tax on cigarettes and tobacco products and to dedicate the revenues, will appear on the November ballot. The proposed law would increase taxation on tobacco products sold in the state. The tax on a 20 stick cigarette package would be raised by $1.00 and the tax on a 25 stick cigarette package would be raised by $1.25. The tax on all other tobacco products such as cigars, roll-your-own, and chewing tobacco, would increase from 10 percent to 35 percent of the wholesale price.
The proposed law dedicates the first $30 million in revenue to the state general fund, the next $5 million to tobacco prevention and reduction, with any additional funds to be divided between property tax reduction, education and healthcare. If you were voting on this Initiated Measure today, would you vote:
- "YES", to adopt the proposed law,
-
STATE MEN WOMEN DEMS REPS INDS
“YES” 59% 47% 71% 59% 58% 61%
“NO” 35% 45% 25% 36% 35% 36%
UNDECIDED 6% 8% 4% 5% 7% 3%
QUESTION: Initiated Measure 3 will appear on the November ballot. It would prohibit local school boards from establishing the start of a regular school term prior to the last day of August. If you were voting on this Initiated Measure today, would you vote:
- "YES", to adopt the proposed law,
-
STATE MEN WOMEN DEMS REPS INDS
“YES” 39% 37% 41% 33% 41% 48%
“NO” 44% 45% 43% 49% 44% 31%
UNDECIDED 17% 18% 16% 18% 15% 21%
QUESTION: Initiated Measure 5 places certain restrictions on the use of state owned or leased aircraft. The proposed law requires aircraft owned or leased by the State to be used only for state business, with no exceptions. It removes the current exemption for the Governor and law enforcement personnel. A person violating this provision would now be subject to civil and criminal penalties.If you were voting on this Initiated Measure today, would you vote:
- "YES", to adopt the proposed law,
-
STATE MEN WOMEN DEMS REPS INDS
“YES” 54% 54% 54% 61% 44% 67%
“NO” 33% 36% 30% 28% 39% 23%
UNDECIDED 13% 10% 16% 11% 17% 10%
QUESTION: Several school districts in
More than adequate 8%
Adequate 28%
Less than adequate 55%
Not Sure (NOT READ) 9%
QUESTION: Do you support or oppose continued public funding of the State Fair in Huron?
STATE MEN WOMEN DEMS REPS INDS
SUPPORT 53% 52% 54% 52% 53% 58%
OPPOSE 28% 34% 22% 24% 30% 28%
UNDECIDED 19% 14% 24% 24% 17% 14%
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush’s handling of the war in
STATE MEN WOMEN DEMS REPS INDS
APPROVE 40% 43% 37% 11% 65% 33%
DISAPPROVE 51% 46% 56% 80% 25% 58%
NOT SURE 9% 11% 7% 9% 10% 9%
QUESTION: Do you feel former Senator Tom Daschle should or should not run for President in 2008?
STATE MEN WOMEN DEMS REPS INDS
SHOULD 39% 33% 45% 56% 23% 50%
SHOULD NOT 41% 48% 34% 26% 54% 37%
NOT SURE 20% 19% 21% 18% 21% 13%
QUESTION: Would you support or oppose eliminating video lottery games in
STATE MEN WOMEN DEMS REPS INDS
SUPPORT 39% 35% 43% 30% 44% 47%
OPPOSE 50% 58% 42% 55% 47% 43%
NOT SURE 11% 7% 15% 15% 9% 10%
POLL TRACKINGS
August 2003 58% 25% 17% -
November 2003 54% 27% 19% -
February 2004 47% 33% 20% -
May 2004 49% 32% 19% -
September 2004 51% 33% 16% -
October 2004 53% 31% 16% -
July 2006 41% 40% 19% -
September 2002 52% 29% 18% 1%
October 2002 54% 34% 11% 1%
July 2006 57% 16% 24% 3%
September 2002 51% 21% 25% 3%
October 2002 50% 31% 17% 2%
August 2003 53% 22% 23% 2%
November 2003 54% 21% 23% 2%
February 2004 54% 24% 21% 1%
May 2004 54% 23% 21% 2%
September 2004 50% 34% 15% 1%
October 2004 46% 35% 18% 1%
July 2006 51% 28% 19% 2%
ROUNDS
September 2002 52% 9% 28% 11%
October 2002 55% 14% 24% 7%
July 2006 59% 15% 25% 1%
September 2002 47% 14% 29% 10%
October 2002 51% 21% 25% 3%
November 2003 47% 15% 31% 7%
February 2004 57% 17% 23% 3%
May 2004 47% 26% 24% 3%
September 2004 51% 26% 22% 1%
October 2004 51% 35% 13% 1%
July 2006 63% 20% 16% 1%
