I've contended since the onset that the 2010 Governor's race is not going to solidify for a great deal of time. While the Lt. Governor as the current front runner has been open about his candidacy for a couple of years now, was long ago endorsed by the Governor, and has raised a pile of cash, it's by no means a done deal.

Strong evidence of that is the fundraiser that was recently held in Sioux Falls where people involved are claiming that it raised $250,000. But more important - notice who was involved in the campaign, as related by Mt. Blogmore:

The Knudson event was casual, with jeans common and burgers served. But the donations were serious. The suggested level was $1,000, and about 200 folks turned out. The list of co-hosts included: Barb and Tom Everist, Dave and Jill Bockorny, Bob Thimjon, Tom and Patti Dempster, Dan Kirby, Jeff and Carol Parker, Kevin and Carmen Schieffer; Rob and Larissa Skjonsberg and Don and Christine Dunham.

Skjonsberg is especially interesting, since he was chief of staff to Gov. Mike Rounds, who supports and promotes the campaign of Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard. Also on the Knudson bandwagon is former Rounds press secretary Mark Johnston.

“I think they look at the total picture and believe I’m the better governor,” Knudson said.

Read that here.  While Johnston had not necessarily been involved previously with the Daugaard effort, Skjonsberg had, and had done so quite strongly while he was Rounds' chief of staff as was noted in a post I did back in August 2007 (yes, 2007) on the topic:

We know it is early, but we believe it is important for us to join Dennis' team now and help him as he prepares his campaign for Governor of our great state. We believe you’ll want to join him too.

Within the next couple of weeks, one of the members of our planning committee will be contacting you to confirm your attendance at our get-together. South Dakota is moving forward — let’s continue the progress by helping Dennis Daugaard get his campaign off to a strong start! We look forward to seeing you on September 13th..

Signed, Rob Skjonsberg and Paul E. Bachand.

Read that here. The word I'd heard some time back is that one of the reasons that Rob shifted allegiances was because Dennis would not commit to a position on ethanol that (surprise, surprise) differed from that of the Rounds administration. As I've said many times, that's his Achilles heel.  And this fundraiser doesn't help. It's as if the seeds of doubt has been planted about his inevitability.

At this point in time, I'd say that the three serious campaigns are entering a state of flux.

Dennis has the money, but as evidenced, his support isn't as deep and as ultimately inevitable as he previously thought. I'd say this is symptomatic of how early he started his campaign, because when you've been on top on the race for so long, where do you have to go? The only place to go is down, and when you have previous supporters now doing fundraisers for another guy, what does it tell others who might be inching towards the fence to hedge their bets?  Lt. Governor Daugaard is at a point where he needs to retool and refine things a bit.

Dave Knudson struck a major blow to Dennis' campaign this week with that Sioux Falls fundraiser. His problem now is that he needs to show that his appeal is broader than a bunch of rich people in Sioux Falls.  Within GOP confines (remember there's a primary first), he has to get past a voting record which some find unpalatable, and he needs to show how his candidacy works for the guy scrubbing the bathroom as well as the one leading the boardroom.  Plus he needs to quit acting like he finds campaigning uncomfortable. As I'm hearing from people at GOP events, It shows.

Scott Munsterman's campaign has not had as dramatic a movement as Knudson's this past week, but word is he continues to quietly gather supporters at the grassroot level, as well as current and former GOP noteworthy's talking about support. He's enjoying the process of campaigning, and he's quietly picking up a person or two who had helped with from Rounds' 2002 effort. Scott also has a campaign that's intesting to young Republican activists, such as his driver, Brandon Lindstrom ( formerly of the SDSU College Republicans).

Despite Scott's current financial disadvantage, the success of the Knudson fundraiser also provides an unmentioned side benefit to the Munsterman campaign. For those wavering on Daugaard who find Knudson's voting record unpalatable, Scott provides a viable door number three for conservatives. And, not having been part of the last 7 fiscal years  - 6 of which dug into the reserves because of deficit spending - Scott's door number 3 might be an increasingly attractive choice.

Now, the other guy in the race?

In the contest, I either hear of or see something of candidate's activity without having to go hunting. Ken Knuppe? Not so much. Going to his campaign calendar, I see he has a Republican dinner in May, and one in June, and that's about it.   At a time when other candidates are picking up money or support, Ken needs to come out of invisibility mode and shake things up drastically. Or else be prepared to figure out who else he can support.

Stay tuned in the contest - much more to come!

Read Pat's main website at dakotawarcollege.com - South Dakota's #1 independent political website!