Economics is not like a basketball game  where when the game ends you know the score.

This coming week the economic growth rate for the third quarter will be announced. Many economists are suggesting that it will meet or exceed 3% and combined with leading economic indicators that the recession has ended.

Despite improved numbers just about everyone, including economists, politicians and especially the White House is bemoaning employment (or unemployment) numbers. Christina Romer, the President’s Chief Economic advisor was in uber spin this week to lower expectations about the joblessness rate.

Sidebar – The President is walking a fine line while talking out of both sides of his mouth, spinning that his Stimulus package is working (that is supposed to SAVE or create so many jobs) and telling us there is increased unemployment ahead.

Our experts should not pin their belief in real eco recovery to jobs. I concede that employed workers spending money enhances growth but in todays economy is not required.

The economic model has changed. The credit meltdown last October was a game changer. Foremost as business and industry retrenched to deal with the worst recession since the Great Depression they reworked their business plans. This is particularly true in the Retail sector. Retailers closed stores, shunning employees and went into overdrive adapting a warehouse direct to consumer sales plan. On all fronts employers adopted technology and use of Internet to increase growth. Until the economy has real sustained growth these retail jobs will be a long time coming back. With the new Internet model many are lost forever.

Just a note – Many manufacturing jobs have been lost to our domestic economy. Not just automobile jobs but even light manufacturing as well. Our economy is global and outsourcing will continue. Many jobs can be done overseas with quality equal to American at far lower that U S costs. This presents challenges economically but exacerbates the shift from the information age to our digital knowledge economy. Thus putting a premium on creating the right kinds of jobs for increased investments in education and primary research.

In today’s economy, workers value their jobs. Employees are not expecting raises automatically and they are working harder (increased productivity). Employees are telling their boss, there is no need to hire someone, we will work harder. Employees are taking care of their jobs understanding their employer must remain economically viable.

Losses in retirement funds caused by the drop in the stock market have caused many workers to postpone their retirements. Thus depriving younger workers of needed job openings. Over time this delay in retirement does create some pent up demand for jobs but they may be five years or more further in the future. These workers will retire either as they age or their portfolios recover and grow.

For the meantime Politicians should not use job numbers as a sign of economic recovery. Our economy has transformed and shed jobs permanently.

Hopefully we have a jobless recovery. It is possible.

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