Two governor's seats will be awarded on Tuesday, in Virginia and New Jersey. An unusual amount of attention is focused on these two races. The reason is that they are the first real test of political climate change. Almost a year ago a lot of people were writing obituaries for the Republican Party. That was not completely silly. Two elections do not a realignment make, but they surely could have been the beginning of a strong and long lasting realignment toward the Democratic Party. What a difference eleven months make!

Virginia Projection

The Republican candidate in Virginia, Robert F. McDonnell, looks poised to crush the Democrat, Creigh Deeds. Less attention has been paid to the Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General races. Republican candidates seem likely to take both of those seats by similar margins.

Virginia Tea Leaves

Virginia has been moving left in recent elections. Democrats have held the State House for a decade, and Barack Obama was the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state in 45 years. The President has been vigorously campaigning there for Deeds. A Republican sweep of the top three offices will look like a resurrection for the Virginia GOP. Republicans will spin the election as a referendum on Obama and the Democratic Congress. Democrats, and the White House in particular, have written it off as a lost cause. Their spin: Deeds ran a bad campaign and ran away from the President.

New Jersey Projection

Incumbent Jon Corzine has been trailing Republican Chris Christie for most of the year, but in some recent polls Corzine now has a small lead. If the Quinnipiac poll is right, Corzine will win by a small but comfortable margin. If Rasmussen and PPP are right, Christie will squeak out a victory. The wild card is independent candidate Chris Daggett. Daggett can't win, but he may get 10% of the vote. The question is how big his margin is and whose voters he takes. I don't know which way to call this one, but I predict a narrow victory for Christie. Why? Because if I am right I will look smart, and if I am wrong, I will be funny.

New Jersey Tea Leaves

If the Republican does win in New Jersey, that will be very hard news for the Democrats. The GOP will spin a story of shifting tides and a spendthrift President and Congress alienating their own base. Democrats will argue that Corzine did better than Deeds because he ran left and supported the President. That same Democratic spin will work a lot better and be a lot more fun if Corzine survives. Republicans will say that Corzine once again bought an election by spending a lot of his own money, which will be true. Still, he bought it fair and square.

Summary

If Virginia goes as expected the day will belong to the Republicans. Virginia has been one of the most watched states in recent elections. Republican presidential candidates can't win without it. If Christie wins in New Jersey, it won't mean much for the long term. Republicans have no future in that state. But it will put big wind in the sails of the party nationally. If Corzine holds on, it will feed the Democratic narrative that the Party can be successful if only it holds true to its basic principles. That might be the message that saves the party, and it might be the message that wrecks it.