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Money Matters: Dow 10,000-Day Two

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By Angela Kennecke
Published: October 15, 2009, 9:50 PM
Updated: October 15, 2009, 4:44 PM

They're celebrating on Wall Street this week after the Dow Jones Industrial average reached 10-thousand two days in a row. It was just a year ago today that the Dow went tumbling to its second biggest one day point loss ever. Now the stock market is up 53 percent since it hit bottom in March.

10-thousand may be a magical number on Wall Street, but people on Main Street have yet to celebrate.

"This time when we reach the 10,000 on the Dow, people are much more skeptical of this milestone. Many people can't understand why financial markets have been increasing over the last 7 months," said Financial Planner Neil Graff of Eide Bailly.

Increasing at the same time as unemployment, currently at 9.8 percent in the U.S. and expected to rise above 10 percent. But Graff says the market is an indicator of the future, not the current state of the economy.

"When a recession ends, it doesn't mean growth automatically beginning. We expect growth to be small over the next 2-3 years. It could be 2010 before the economy really gets running on all 8 cylinders. That doesn't mean the stock market can't keep going up. They're looking at future profits 1 to 3 years down the road," said Graff.

Since World War II, there have been 9 Bear markets where stocks were down and stayed down for about 14 months. The Bull markets that followed lasted approximately 60 months with a rally of about 55 percent over a two year period. Stocks have rallied 53 percent since March already.

"If history repeats itself, we could be in for a nice bull market after the end of nine Bear markets," said Graff.

The Dow’s all time high was over 14-thousand in October of 2007. Seven months ago it was at 65-hundred. A close of 10 thousand is only partial recovery for all those investors who lost money in their 401(k). They're about halfway back to where they started.





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